The line doesn’t always go up. The line doesn’t always go down. There are always swings in player counts on Steam Charts for any game that lasts over two years—including Counter-Strike.
The average gamers’ obsession on whether something is dead or not hinges on Steam Charts, and the latest victim is CS2. Players have become obsessed with every single downtick in player count, confirming every poor experience that they’ve ever had in the game. From a technical standpoint, they aren’t wrong in the analysis. It would be very difficult to see the little red number and think to yourself “this means there are actually more players in the game,” but the conclusion is wrong: The game is not dying, and the implication that CS2 is going to be bad forever is terrible analysis.
Let’s set the table here. Yes, CS2 is missing dozens of functions that Counter-Strike players correctly believe are fundamental to the experience. Yes, the sub-tick system needs a ton of work, and the Premiere ranking system is atrocious, plagued with cheaters and terrible matchmaking. All of those things are true.
However, many other things are also true. Long-term games that get a new entry into their franchise or a major expansion of the core game always see upticks in player count that are not sustainable. Contrary to popular belief, there are millions of gamers that tap into the new thing for a month or two, then fall off. It doesn’t matter what state the game releases in. Unless it is a genre-breaking success, which is rare, there will always be some tourists who come in to see the new hot title, and then go back to their games of choice. That’s a ding in the player count.
The sub-tick system was also always going to take some time to perfect. It’s an ambitious new way of making online gameplay fair, and the expectation that it was going to be a silver bullet is flawed analysis. Things don’t exist on a binary, and if Valve doesn’t move to the 128 tick servers, there are going to be growing pains. The servers aren’t great, and that’s leading to a player count downtick, but it’s one that can be rectified.
CS2 didn’t launch with community features like surfing maps and private servers, which is a slap in the face to many players. These are bad, but players who aren’t thrilled with CS2‘s lack of community options will undoubtedly return to the game they’ve spent decades with when these functions are re-added.
This isn’t to say that this isn’t a botched release: Veteran Counter-Strike players have every right to be upset with the underwhelming and frankly insulting way that CS2 was handled. However, words have meanings, and the idea that CS2 is dying just doesn’t hold water currently. It’s bad data interpretation and “line always go up” mentality that is causing players with an axe to grind to go feral.
It’s rough right now, but barring extreme circumstances, it will get better.
