VALORANT Champions 2023 has finally taken a breather after whittling down the competition to the top-four teams. Heading into the upper and lower bracket finals, it’s only natural to wonder how these teams actually stack up against each other, and who’s most likely to take the whole thing.
With that end in mind, we’ve crunched the numbers to see who statistically should walk away as the winners of Champs 2023. Of course, these statistics don’t speak to every element at play during these matches, but they can give us some ideas of which teams are strongest in which areas, and if those strengths are enough to get them across the finish line.
But before we get into the Grand Final, we need to establish who’s most likely to make it there in the first place.
Upper bracket final: EG vs. PRX
So far, our top two teams based solely on results are North America’s Evil Geniuses and Southeast Asia’s Paper Rex. Let’s take a look at the numbers:
Collective ACS
- EG: 214.84 across nine maps played
- PRX: 202.17 across nine maps played
Number of maps dropped in tournament
- EG: One
- PRX: One
Total round wins
- EG: 118
- PRX: 111
Number of top-rated players on squad
- EG: One, Demon1 (No. 2, 260 ACS per map for nine maps played)
- PRX: One, Jinggg (No. 10, 228 ACS per map for nine maps played)
Past meetings
- Masters Tokyo 2023 lower bracket final: 3-2 for EG
Analysis
As you can see from the number of maps played and dropped, along with how many top-rated players they have, EG and Paper Rex are closely rated. This match will mostly likely come down to the performance of one Max “Demon1” Mazanov, Evil Geniuses’ star player, and Paper Rex’s ability to counter him.
In reality, that strategy will most likely entail locking down killer support Ethan Arnold, who currently sits at 122 assists. If these two are left unchecked and are able to rely on the rock steady support of Alexander “Jawgemo” Mor, Corbin “C0M” Lee, and dynamic play from IGL Kelden “Boostio” Pupello, Paper Rex might be in trouble.
That said, when these two squads have met in the past, it wasn’t a total stomp. Paper Rex took two maps in their five-game series in the Masters Tokyo lower bracket final. But that was against a Demon1 whose LAN form still looked shaky. The same can’t be said of him at this event, and if he continues his current LAN performance, it will be an uphill battle to stop him.
Related: Paper Rex star might be retiring from pro VALORANT after Champions 2023
If PRX are going to win, every single member needs to be completely on their game. They do currently have an advantage in their lower number of rounds won across the tournament (a good statistic since it shows they can win maps quickly without having to go into overtime). If they can channel that efficiency and keep Ethan and Demon1 in check, they’ll have a chance.
Our prediction
Evil Geniuses will win this match and advance to the Grand Final.
Lower bracket semi-final: Fnatic vs. LOUD
In a somewhat surprising turn of events, the two teams that have been considered the best in the world for the past two VCT seasons—Fnatic and LOUD—are the ones currently fighting for their lives in the Champions lower bracket. Here’s how they stack up:
Collective ACS
- Fnatic: 203.85 across 11 maps played
- LOUD: 204.75 across 16 maps played
Number of maps dropped in tournament
- Fnatic: Three
- LOUD: Three
Total round wins
- Fnatic: 122
- LOUD: 191
Number of top-rated players on squad
- Fnatic: One, Alfajer (No. 4, 242 ACS per map for 11 maps played)
- LOUD: One, Less (No. 8, 228 ACS per map for 16 maps played)
Past meetings
- VCT Champions 2023 upper bracket quarter final: 2-0 for LOUD
- VCT 2023 LOCK//IN grand final: 3-2 for Fnatic
Analysis
In what is now becoming the new regional rivalry, LOUD and Fnatic are pretty evenly matched so far. They’ve traded blows equally when it comes to dishing out defeats; Fnatic reverse swept them at LOCK//IN to win their first event of the year (and as a team), and LOUD returned the favor in the upper bracket of this tournament.
But while both teams have had their shaky moments so far, LOUD has been the messier of the two. The Brazilian squad have had to win 69 more rounds than their EMEA opponents to get this far, and have had to play five more maps to stay alive. While they’ve managed to keep it up so far, these numbers show that they’ve been pushed harder by their opposition than the rest of the top four.
If Fnatic have their mental together and are able to support Emir “Alfajer” Ali Beder, their efficient playstyle should see them through this match, though it won’t be an easy one. LOUD’s Felipe “Less” de Loyola Basso may currently be rated below Alfajer, but he’s a monster in his own right and shouldn’t be underestimated. Should he have a good game against a Fnatic that’s at all tilted or mentally unprepared, things probably won’t end well for the EMEA squad.
Our prediction
Fnatic will win this match and advance to the lower bracket final.
Lower bracket final: Fnatic vs. PRX
Since we haven’t seen the matches that would lead to this hypothetical situation, most of our previous numbers won’t be as accurate. But we’ll still be able to follow their performance trends to make some predictions.
Collective ACS
- Fnatic: 203.85 across 11 maps played
- PRX: 202.17 across nine maps played
Number of maps dropped in tournament
- Fnatic: Three
- PRX: One
Total round wins
- Fnatic: 122
- PRX: 111
Number of top-rated players on squad
- Fnatic: One, Alfajer (No. 4, 242 ACS per map for 11 maps played)
- PRX: One, Jinggg (No. 10, 228 ACS per map for nine maps played)
Past meetings
- Masters Tokyo 2023 upper bracket semi-final: 2-0 for Fnatic
Analysis
Deciding who’s most likely to survive this match is tricky. Statistically and performance-wise, Paper Rex have the upper hand. Their collective ACS is right behind Fnatic’s, despite having played two fewer maps across the tournament. They’ve also dropped two fewer maps overall, and have won 11 fewer rounds. There’s no denying that Paper Rex have been playing much more efficiently in Champions so far.
But all that said, this is still Fnatic. After the comeback they managed during the LOCK//IN Grand Final, it never seems wise to count them out. If every member is firing on all cylinders, we think they will give PRX a hard time, but they need to have their mental in order and make sure that players like Alfajer and Nikita “Derke” Sirmitev are set up to succeed consistently. Reliably having that firepower connect will be key to dismantling Paper Rex’s W gaming.
Our prediction
Paper Rex will win this match and advance to the Grand Final.
Grand Final: EG vs. Paper Rex
We’ve already laid out the numbers we have for these teams, so all that’s left is to predict based on the vibes and how well we think PRX will play after defeating Fnatic.
Analysis
Though they’ll likely have momentum coming off knocking the world champs out of this tournament, We don’t know that Paper Rex will be able to rise to EG’s level in this final stretch. The main advantage they have is the sheer amount of LAN experience they have together as a squad. Though Ilya “something” Petrov is a new addition, the other four players have been playing together for years now and have attended almost every global event.
That kind of experience comes in handy for grueling best-of-five matches, and Demon1 has had issues with nerves in the past. He seems to have mostly overcome that, but you never know what will happen on game day.
If he does have his head together, and Ethan is able to support his team the way he has all tournament, we believe PRX will fall to them again. Something has been a breath of fresh air for the SEA squad, but Demon1 is just on another level. His ACS per map speaks for itself, 260 to something’s 222.
Our prediction
Evil Geniuses will win this match and take home the trophy for Champions 2023.
